• go to Product/Work Schedule
• go to Preliminary Data and Results  [under construction]
• go to the Metadata for the time series project

Objectives:
1.  to develop and populate frame-based data structures for ecological information relevant to swans in a knowledge representation format usable by expert systems.

2.  to examine the feasibility of using nonparametric, time series analysis to detect population trends in the Rocky Mountain Population of trumpeter swans.

Procedures:
Frames--   We will gather pertinent population data that is available through the USDI - Fish and Wildlife Service and USDI - Geological Survey for the Rocky Mountain Population of Trumpeter Swans.  This information will be encoded into ASCII text-based frames as required for use by Exsys Developer  ExsysWeb software.  Similarly, frame structures will be built for population objectives for the flyway and for individual sites, and for listing habitat management options by individual sites.   Relationships among frames are based on principles of inheritance, and higher level frames will be constructed for site specific spatial and ecological information.

FGDC compliant metadata will be developed.  Actual data will also converted into html format and posted on the web.

Population Trend Analysis--  Using the data collected for the frames portion of this work, we will test the utility of a minimum of three methods for time series analysis of swan population data.  These will include permutation methods ( Walker et al. 1997), with programs available at http://www.stat.colostate.edu/~mielke/mielkesoftware.html ; and those programs available as part of MSU's SAS software package.  We will quantitatively examine differences in the analyses performed, along with the assumptions required, and their overall applicability to swan population analyses.

Static graphs of raw data will be provided in html format and posted on the web.

Sites to be included in analyses include: Grand Teton NP, Grays Lake NWR, Harrimann  State Park (ID), National Elk Refuge, Red Rock Lakes NWR, and Yellowstone NP; the entire Tri-state area; and the Pacific Flyway.  Trends will be examined by areas for breeding, post-breeding, and wintering periods, depending on data availability.

The hypothesis to be tested is that there is no trend in numbers of swans regionally, and the variation among sites is random.

Data Handling and Analysis:
FGDC compliant metadata will be prepared for all data sets and will be posted, along with applicable population data on a USDI Geological Survey Unix workstation (swan.msu.montana.edu).

Users:
Swan managers in both the USDI - Fish and Wildlife Service and National Park Service and the Pacific Flyway state fish and wildlife agencies;  BRD researchers working in swan ecology and decision support systems.

Technology Transfer:
All data and metadata will be made available through USDI - Geological Survey web servers.

Product/Work Schedule:
By:
1 November 1999 - all data assembled; methods for constructing frames developed

1 December 1999 - population data, population objectives, and management option data entered into frame structures

1 January 2000 - raw population data graphed and posted to web on trial basis

1 March 2000 - qualitative assessment of population data completed and report posted to web; First run of preliminary analyses of population data completed; Progress report submitted

1 May 2000 - metadata completed and posted to web; raw data posted to web in html format

1 July 2000 - preliminary analyses completed on all data

1 September 2000 - informal report evaluating utility of nonparametric methods for time series analysis of swan population data; recommendations on ways to proceed with additional, final analyses of swan population data.

1 November 2000 - a first draft of a scientific journal article on the utility of nonparametric  methods for time series analysis of swan population data

Investigators:
Dr. Daniel Goodman, Environmental Statistics Group, Biology Department, Montana State University

References:
Walker,  D. D., J. C. Loftis, and P. W. Mielke, Jr.  1997.  Permutation methods for determining the significance of spatial dependence.  Mathematical Geology 29(8):1011-1024.