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Bayesian Time-Series Analysis of Segments of the Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buccinator) Population

Metadata:

• Identification_Information
• Data_Quality_Information
• Spatial_Data_Organization_Information
• Spatial_Reference_Information
• Entity_and_Attribute_Information
• Distribution_Information
• Metadata_Reference_Information

Identification_Information:

Citation:

Citation_Information:

Originator: Wright, C.K, Sojda, R., and D. Goodman

Publication_Date: In Review

Publication_Time: 2001

Title:

Bayesian Time-Series Analysis of Segments of the Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buccinator) Population

Series_Information:

Series_Name: Waterbirds

Issue_Identification:

Proceedings of the 4th International Swan Symposium

Publication_Information:

Publisher: The Waterbird Society

Description:

Abstract:

Bayesian time series analysis techniques were used to analyze Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buccinator) time series from Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming from 1931 to 2000. Results indicate that the Yellowstone National Park segment of white birds is declining at an annual rate of 3.5% (± 2.2%, p=0.90). The estimated probability of achieving the Subcommittee on Rocky Mountain Trumpeter Swans 2002 population goal of 40 white birds for the Yellowstone segment is 0.069. Outside of Yellowstone, Wyoming white bird numbers are estimated to be increasing by 1.5% (± 3.3%, p=0.90) annually with a 0.662 probability of achieving the 2002 goal of 120 white birds. At the Centennial Valley in southwest Montana, results indicate that the white bird population is growing at a 5.2% (± 7.9%, p=0.90) annual rate with considerable uncertainty. The estimated probability of achieving the 2002 Centennial Valley goal of 160 white birds is 0.725 but under an alternative model falls to 0.219. The Targhee National Forest segment of white birds is declining at a rate of 3.9% (± 3.2%, p=0.90), annually, while outside of the Targhee National Forest, Idaho white birds are increasing at an annual rate of 8.7% (± 7.1%, p=0.90).

Purpose:

Time series analyses provided in support of development of the Trumpeter Swan Decision Support System at the Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center.

Supplemental_Information:

A database of September counts of Trumpeter Swan cygnets and white birds from 1971 to 2000 was created prior to conducting time series analyses. This data can be queried at swan.msu.montana.edu/census/sept_query.html, allowing the user to view counts from various segments of the Tri-State segment of the Rocky Mountain Population.

Time_Period_of_Content:

Currentness_Reference:

9/1931 to 9/2000 are the dates for which time series analyses were conducted. 9/1971 to 9/1999 are years over which database can be queried.

Status:

Progress: complete

Maintenance_and_Update_Frequency: Unknown

Spatial_Domain:

Description_of_Geographic_Extent: Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming

Bounding_Coordinates:

West_Bounding_Coordinate: -117

East_Bounding_Coordinate: -103

North_Bounding_Coordinate: 49

South_Bounding_Coordinate: 41

Keywords:

Theme:

Theme_Keyword_Thesaurus: none

Theme_Keyword: Bayesian Time Series Analysis

Theme_Keyword: Population monitoring

Theme_Keyword: Rocky Mountain Population of Trumpeter Swans

Place:

Place_Keyword_Thesaurus: none

Place_Keyword: Idaho

Place_Keyword: Montana

Place_Keyword: Wyoming

Stratum:

Stratum_Keyword_Thesaurus: None

Stratum_Keyword: Yellowstone National Park

Stratum_Keyword: Targhee National Forest

Stratum_Keyword: Wyoming outside of Yellowstone NP

Stratum_Keyword: Idaho outside of Targhee NF

Stratum_Keyword: Red Rock Lakes NWR

Stratum_Keyword: Centennial Valley

Temporal:

Temporal_Keyword_Thesaurus: None

Temporal_Keyword: USFWS Fall Trumpeter Swan Surveys

Taxonomy:

Taxonomic_Keywords: Cygnus buccinator

Taxonomic_Coverage:

Specific_Taxonomic_Information:

Kingdom: animal

Division-Phylum: chordata

Class: avies

Order: anseriformes

Family: anatidae

Genus: cygnus

Species: buccinator

Applicable_Common_Names: Trumpeter Swan

Taxonomic_Coverage:

Specific_Taxonomic_Information:

Genus: Cygnus

Species: buccinator

Applicable_Common_Names: Trumpeter Swan

Access_Constraints: None

Use_Constraints: None

Point_of_Contact:

Contact_Information:

Contact_Position: Richard Sojda

Contact_Address:

Address_Type: mailing and physical address

Address: U.S. Geological Service

Address: Biological Resources Division

Address: Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Address: AJM Johnson Hall

Address: Montana State University

City: Bozeman

State_or_Province: Montana

Postal_Code: 59717-3492

Contact_Voice_Telephone: 406-994-1820

Contact_TDD/TTY_Telephone: unavailable

Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: unavailable

Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sojda@montana.edu

Hours_of_Service: 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Monday Through Friday

Contact_Instructions: unavailable

Data_Set_Credit: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Native_Data_Set_Environment: UNIX - Solaris OS

Cross_Reference:

Data_Quality_Information:

Spatial_Data_Organization_Information:

Spatial_Reference_Information:

Entity_and_Attribute_Information:

Distribution_Information:

Metadata_Reference_Information:

Metadata_Date: 2/27/2001

Metadata_Contact:

Contact_Information:

Contact_Position: Richard Sojda

Contact_Address:

Address_Type: mailing and physical address

Address: U.S. Geological Service

Address: Biological Resources Division

Address: Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center

Address: AJM Johnson Hall

Address: Montana State University

City: Bozeman

State_or_Province: Montana

Postal_Code: 59717-3492

Contact_Voice_Telephone: 406-994-1820

Contact_TDD/TTY_Telephone: unavailable

Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: unavailable

Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: sojda@montana.edu

Hours_of_Service: 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Monday Through Friday

Contact_Instructions: unavailable

Metadata_Standard_Name:

NBII Content Standard for National Biological Information Infrastructure Metadata

Metadata_Standard_Version: December 1995

Metadata_Access_Constraints: None

Metadata_Use_Constraints: None

Metadata_Security_Information:

Metadata_Security_Classification_System: None

Metadata_Security_Classification: Unclassified

Metadata_Security_Handling_Description: None