Nomenclature:

PCi,j = Probability of movement from area x to area y obtained from expert opinion and weighted according to the Base Swan Distribution Simulator Algorithm, distsim, for a particular transition from one season to
the next where C signifies the particular transition period

Pbrpo = Probability matrix of movement probabilities from the breeding to post-breeding seasons

Ppowi = Probability matrix of movement probabilities from the post-breeding to wintering seasons

Pwipr = Probability matrix of movement probabilities from the wintering to pre-breeding seasons

Pprbr = Probability matrix of movement probabilities from the pre-breeding to breeding  seasons

Pbrpoi,j =  Probability matrix of movement from area x to area y during the breeding to post-breeding transition;  the element in row i , column j

Algorithm:

1.   for any transition period, C, if HABa(s+1)t  = ¬good  V  if FLYa(s+1)t  = ¬good,
  then PCia = .1 * PCia , and .9 * PCia is distributed to the jth area in PCij where j represents the area with the largest probability value

2.   if there is a tie where > 1 PCij is the largest value, than .9 * PCia is distributed to the jth area in PCij where j represents the area of those with the largest PCij  and is nearest in geographic straight line
distance to PCia

3.  the new probabilities are written to a matrix, PCij'

4.  distsim is then called using PCij'